🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Trader Earned $436,000 on Wagers Predicting Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of the Venezuelan leader shortly prior to it was officially announced, raising questions about potential gains made from confidential information of the event. Market Movement in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be no longer in control by the month's conclusion rose in the time leading up to President Donald Trump announced on January 3rd that the president had been apprehended. A particular user, which became a member in December and placed four wagers, all on Venezuela, earned over $436,000 from a modest bet of $32.5K. It remains unclear. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Market Signals Before News Break Market statistics shows that traders put the odds of Maduro's exit at just 6.5% in the afternoon of the Friday before the event. Yet the market's assessment had jumped to over 10% by late Friday night and surged in the first hours of the next day, indicating a rapid movement in betting activity right before the official statement was made. "That trade has all the characteristics of a transaction based on non-public details," commented Dennis Kelleher. Several of other platform users also earned significant sums from predicting the capture. Political Attention Grows Some lawmakers are starting to take note. A bill introduced on Monday aims to prohibit federal workers from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market. The Prediction Market Landscape Event-driven betting sites have become increasingly popular in the past few years, with users able to bet on everything from elections to political events. This sector faced scrutiny under the Biden administration. Yet it has received a warmer welcome during the current presidency. Insider trading is against the law in the traditional financial markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the event betting industry. A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "strictly forbids insider trading of any form."